denizz

0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73 View on Polymarket

Nothing structural stops this wallet from being copied. Whether it should be is your call.

Follow in paper

Paper trading fills against the live order book with pessimistic assumptions and no money involved.

Why this score

Profitable in 2 of 3 windows (week, month, all time).
Up in 18 of 31 active weeks.
Worst fall in cumulative realised profit: 28% of the capital the wallet shows.
500 closed positions in the latest 500.

Account value: $1.2M
7 days: −$4.9k
30 days: +$11k
All time: +$2.3M
Profit per $ staked: +11%
Worst drawdown: 28%
Win rate: 59%
Markets traded: 185

Cumulative realised profit, latest 500 positions

Feb 26Oct 26

Open positions

Market	Side	Entry	Mark	Value	Unrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	0.7631	0.945	$465k	+$89k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	0.7359	0.825	$306k	+$33k
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	0.8502	0.9675	$156k	+$19k
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	0.7635	0.955	$61k	+$12k
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	0.6617	0.805	$27k	+$4.8k
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	0.512	0.7155	$24k	+$6.8k
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	0.7475	0.965	$16k	+$3.5k
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	0.8205	0.935	$14k	+$1.7k
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	0.4108	0.83	$13k	+$6.3k
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	0.6515	0.8735	$9.8k	+$2.5k
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	0.3054	0.145	$8.1k	−$9.0k
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	0.8143	0.9715	$8.1k	+$1.3k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	0.5514	0.145	$7.6k	−$21k
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	0.8385	0.945	$5.8k	+$651
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	0.6712	0.91	$5.1k	+$1.3k
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	0.7266	0.967	$4.9k	+$1.2k
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	0.2632	0.11	$4.8k	−$6.6k
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	0.7759	0.945	$4.7k	+$844
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	0.5108	0.9	$4.0k	+$1.7k
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	No	0.8155	0.96	$3.8k	+$567
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	0.8348	0.9015	$3.2k	+$239
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	No	0.8061	0.958	$3.0k	+$469
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	0.4331	0.145	$2.6k	−$5.2k
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	0.5759	0.125	$1.9k	−$6.9k
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	0.3102	0.145	$1.6k	−$1.9k
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	0.762	0.955	$1.3k	+$257
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	0.3707	0.07	$1.1k	−$4.7k
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	0.36	0.235	$1.0k	−$556
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	0.84	0.925	$1.0k	+$93.6
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	No	0.82	0.9435	$917	+$120
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Yes	0.5905	0.155	$717	−$2.0k
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	0.2028	0.095	$706	−$801
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	0.2965	0.165	$628	−$501
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	0.2794	0.145	$524	−$486
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	No	0.68	0.93	$503	+$135
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	0.2587	0.17	$390	−$204
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	0.16	0.09	$18.4	−$14.3

Recent activity

When	Market	Action	Size	Price	Profit
7 d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Closed Yes	70244.6	0.2	+$783
13 d ago	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Closed No	9005.11	0.8918	+$974
13 d ago	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Closed No	134440	0.8499	+$4.5k
13 d ago	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	Closed No	2177.59	0.952	+$105
23 d ago	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Closed No	52913.9	0.6545	+$9.9k
34 d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Closed No	175653	0.83	+$1.6k
34 d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Closed Yes	15424.2	0.15	+$463
43 d ago	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Closed No	7452.59	0.8879	+$835
43 d ago	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Closed No	8307.47	0.5592	+$156
43 d ago	Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?	Closed Yes	10907.1	0.058	−$233
43 d ago	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Closed No	756619	0.9586	−$20k
43 d ago	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Closed Yes	202534	0.24	+$53k
43 d ago	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Closed No	38721.3	0.7521	+$477
53 d ago	US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Closed Yes	74092.2	0.209	−$8.6k
53 d ago	US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Closed No	22619.5	0.7864	−$2.0k
55 d ago	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Closed Yes	1015.42	0.0954	+$411
56 d ago	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Closed Yes	124147	0.1405	−$12k
57 d ago	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Closed Yes	11860.2	0.12	+$4.6k
59 d ago	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	Closed Yes	15031.6	0.2265	+$1.1k
59 d ago	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	Closed No	10306.8	0.704	−$2.1k
61 d ago	Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Closed Yes	11676.7	0.6192	−$4.7k
62 d ago	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Closed Yes	210570	0.4806	+$58k
62 d ago	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Closed Yes	4724.82	0.5331	+$1.9k
68 d ago	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Closed No	14988	0.6944	−$2.9k
70 d ago	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Closed Yes	5365.85	0.07	+$34.1

Profiled just now from public Polymarket data. Statistics, not advice.