occasionalAwareness

0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b View on Polymarket

Nothing structural stops this wallet from being copied. Whether it should be is your call.

Follow in paper

Paper trading fills against the live order book with pessimistic assumptions and no money involved.

Why this score

Profitable in 3 of 3 windows (week, month, all time).
Up in 57 of 73 active weeks.
Worst fall in cumulative realised profit: 31% of the capital the wallet shows.
500 closed positions in the latest 500.

Account value: $283k
7 days: +$11k
30 days: +$14k
All time: +$1.1M
Profit per $ staked: +3.8%
Worst drawdown: 31%
Win rate: 62%
Markets traded: 289

Cumulative realised profit, latest 500 positions

Nov 24Oct 26

Open positions

Market	Side	Entry	Mark	Value	Unrealised
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	0.8999	0.905	$55k	+$303
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	0.4427	0.815	$51k	+$24k
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	0.4799	0.53	$50k	+$4.7k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	0.3567	0.685	$35k	+$17k
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	0.9055	0.975	$27k	+$1.9k
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	0.9399	0.972	$16k	+$539
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	0.1482	0.315	$11k	+$5.8k
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	0.9451	0.9785	$8.1k	+$275
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	0.2994	0.219	$5.4k	−$2.0k
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	0.4393	0.46	$4.2k	+$189
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	0.1206	0.33	$3.8k	+$2.4k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	0.1146	0.255	$3.5k	+$1.9k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Yes	0.0689	0.04	$2.2k	−$1.6k
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	0.4599	0.135	$2.1k	−$5.0k
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	0.4818	0.235	$1.7k	−$1.7k
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	0.0391	0.0165	$1.3k	−$1.8k
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Yes	0.1856	0.065	$1.0k	−$1.9k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	0.1007	0.075	$827	−$283
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	0.1992	0.055	$751	−$2.0k
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	Yes	0.7359	0.5	$300	−$142
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	0.0203	0.059	$207	+$136
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	0.2053	0.065	$191	−$412
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Yes	0.1199	0.031	$161	−$461
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	Yes	0.21	0.046	$149	−$530
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	0.1589	0.032	$147	−$585
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	0.25	0.045	$118	−$539
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	0.2745	0.265	$105	−$3.76
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	0.0181	0.0055	$103	−$237
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)?	Yes	0.011	0.185	$101	+$95.4
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	0.22	0.177	$88.5	−$21.5
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.1133	0.028	$80.3	−$245
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	0.75	0.936	$74.9	+$14.9
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	0.2123	0.0165	$64.6	−$767
Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	No	0.899	0.954	$53.5	+$3.08
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	0.0366	0.011	$49.0	−$114
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?	OpenAI	0.101	0.2905	$46.8	+$30.5
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.0123	0.0105	$25.7	−$4.42
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Yes	0.0317	0.018	$11.8	−$9.01
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.0026	0.0015	$2.92	−$2.21
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	0.0077	0.0035	$2.88	−$3.54
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	0.0496	0.003	$2.42	−$37.7
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.002	0.001	$1.86	−$1.86
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.0027	0.0005	$1.52	−$6.89
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	0.002	0.0005	$0.80	−$2.40

Recent activity

When	Market	Action	Size	Price	Profit
7 d ago	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Closed Yes	13777.9	0.4174	+$4.0k
13 d ago	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Closed Under	32875	0.5828	+$14k
22 d ago	Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Closed Yes	543.77	0.976	+$13.0
22 d ago	Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Closed Yes	790.118	0.9657	+$27.0
22 d ago	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Closed Yes	2730.55	0.9833	+$45.3
23 d ago	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Closed No	267.606	0.606	+$31.1
23 d ago	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Closed Yes	105.9	0.97	+$3.18
23 d ago	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Closed Over	2737.44	0.02	+$1.3k
31 d ago	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Closed Yes	500	0.41	−$190
35 d ago	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Closed No	7000	0.5485	+$624
35 d ago	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Closed No	9812.29	0.8591	+$61.5
35 d ago	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Closed No	2000	0.33	+$440
36 d ago	Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?	Closed Yes	12408.4	0.9884	+$143
36 d ago	Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Closed Yes	23252.2	0.7162	+$6.6k
36 d ago	Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Closed No	19508.5	0.705	+$5.8k
36 d ago	Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Closed Yes	15023.8	0.1801	−$2.7k
36 d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Closed No	23684.1	0.9971	+$3.6k
36 d ago	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Closed Yes	9372	0.168	+$933
43 d ago	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Closed Yes	28755.9	0.003	+$516
60 d ago	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Closed No	6000	0.9326	+$404
61 d ago	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Closed Yes	22055.2	0.2383	+$4.4k
74 d ago	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Closed No	39362.4	0.5	+$394
74 d ago	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Closed Yes	249993	0.4799	+$4.0k
74 d ago	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Closed No	2000	0.976	+$48.0
86 d ago	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?	Closed No	50000	0.97	+$1.5k

Profiled 6 h ago from public Polymarket data. Statistics, not advice.