TheReturnOfDarthMaul

0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699 View on Polymarket

Nothing structural stops this wallet from being copied. Whether it should be is your call.

One big win Most of the profit came from a single trade or market. The score is scaled down for it.

Follow in paper

Paper trading fills against the live order book with pessimistic assumptions and no money involved.

Why this score

Profitable in 2 of 3 windows (week, month, all time).
Up in 11 of 20 active weeks.
Worst fall in cumulative realised profit: 51% of the capital the wallet shows.
500 closed positions in the latest 500.
Score scaled to 60% for thin evidence or concentrated profit.

Account value: $1.7M
7 days: −$24k
30 days: +$923k
All time: +$1.5M
Profit per $ staked: +11%
Worst drawdown: 51%
Win rate: 51%
Markets traded: 354

Cumulative realised profit, latest 500 positions

May 26Oct 26

Open positions

Market	Side	Entry	Mark	Value	Unrealised
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	0.7931	0.964	$572k	+$101k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	0.9041	0.925	$163k	+$3.7k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	0.8236	0.745	$110k	−$12k
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	0.602	0.125	$72k	−$274k
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	0.8697	0.47	$66k	−$56k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	0.68	0.815	$66k	+$11k
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	0.8124	0.795	$64k	−$1.4k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	0.939	0.9945	$50k	+$2.8k
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	0.8505	0.46	$49k	−$41k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	0.7882	0.93	$46k	+$7.1k
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	0.7797	0.9725	$43k	+$8.6k
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	0.8499	0.795	$40k	−$2.7k
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	0.2871	0.285	$33k	−$248
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	0.887	0.9775	$32k	+$3.0k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.5252	0.195	$31k	−$53k
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	0.8791	0.974	$28k	+$2.7k
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	0.8489	0.982	$26k	+$3.6k
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	No	0.8291	0.997	$24k	+$4.0k
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	0.9159	0.905	$23k	−$275
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	0.8631	0.9615	$20k	+$2.0k
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	0.9199	0.905	$18k	−$300
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	0.8735	0.974	$17k	+$1.7k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	0.9401	0.96	$15k	+$306
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	0.7304	0.685	$14k	−$934
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	0.8849	0.685	$14k	−$4.0k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	No	0.9252	0.969	$9.1k	+$413
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	0.9356	0.9725	$7.8k	+$295
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	0.8317	0.625	$7.5k	−$2.5k
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	0.4899	0.55	$7.1k	+$780
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	0.1806	0.205	$6.6k	+$780
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	0.8424	0.9935	$5.8k	+$889
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	0.9159	0.9595	$4.8k	+$218
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	No	0.7579	0.954	$4.8k	+$980
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	0.7533	0.95	$4.8k	+$983
US recession by end of 2026?	No	0.7895	0.925	$4.3k	+$637
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	0.73	0.835	$4.2k	+$525
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	0.9074	0.9755	$3.5k	+$245
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	0.697	0.71	$3.4k	+$61.2
Stripe IPO before 2027?	No	0.8803	0.9695	$2.8k	+$259
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?	No	0.8475	0.986	$2.6k	+$371
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	No	0.7721	0.975	$2.4k	+$507
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	0.9325	0.955	$2.4k	+$56.3
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic	0.9099	0.92	$2.3k	+$25.0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	0.91	0.9485	$2.2k	+$88.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	0.1342	0.095	$2.0k	−$808
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	0.9299	0.9885	$1.9k	+$110
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	0.977	0.9735	$1.6k	−$5.87
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	0.6602	0.951	$1.1k	+$349
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	No	0.9199	0.9745	$941	+$52.6
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	0.5499	0.465	$838	−$153

Recent activity

When	Market	Action	Size	Price	Profit
7 d ago	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Closed Yes	999.994	0.55	−$317
9 d ago	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Closed Yes	5299.98	0.4273	−$2.3k
9 d ago	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Closed Yes	50060.1	0.7316	−$33k
9 d ago	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Closed No	12970.2	0.8481	+$2.0k
9 d ago	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Closed Yes	5299.99	0.4308	+$3.0k
9 d ago	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Closed No	25655.9	0.7541	−$17k
12 d ago	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Closed No	1999.97	0.89	+$220
13 d ago	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Closed No	10000	0.9048	+$701
18 d ago	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Closed No	6999.97	0.87	+$420
18 d ago	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Closed Yes	6999.96	0.86	+$420
18 d ago	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Closed Yes	38999.9	0.6352	+$5.3k
18 d ago	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Closed Up	25	0.8733	+$0.46
21 d ago	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Closed No	2450010	0.5	$0.00
21 d ago	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Closed Yes	2450010	0.5	$0.00
27 d ago	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Closed Yes	5818330	0.6614	+$2.0M
27 d ago	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Closed No	48598.4	0.9395	+$2.9k
27 d ago	Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Closed No	2045.44	0.493	+$1.0k
27 d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Closed No	3068870	0.9828	+$53k
27 d ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Closed No	255796	0.4002	+$153k
27 d ago	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Closed No	8699.99	0.5721	+$3.7k
27 d ago	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Closed Yes	24965.5	0.4007	+$15k
27 d ago	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Closed No	24498.3	0.776	−$6.8k
27 d ago	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Closed Yes	130395	0.4601	+$70k
27 d ago	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Closed Yes	142203	0.4935	+$59k
27 d ago	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Closed Yes	2.63	0.3	+$1.84

Profiled 6 h ago from public Polymarket data. Statistics, not advice.