classified

0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8 View on Polymarket

Nothing structural stops this wallet from being copied. Whether it should be is your call.

Follow in paper

Paper trading fills against the live order book with pessimistic assumptions and no money involved.

Why this score

Profitable in 2 of 3 windows (week, month, all time).
Up in 23 of 24 active weeks.
Worst fall in cumulative realised profit: 61% of the capital the wallet shows.
500 closed positions in the latest 500.

Account value: $292k
7 days: +$28k
30 days: −$54k
All time: +$989k
Profit per $ staked: +5.9%
Worst drawdown: 61%
Win rate: 58%
Markets traded: 116

Cumulative realised profit, latest 500 positions

Apr 26Oct 26

Open positions

Market	Side	Entry	Mark	Value	Unrealised
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	0.6727	0.877	$76k	+$18k
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	0.9477	0.947	$19k	−$15.0
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	0.8812	0.8795	$18k	−$35.6
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	0.5935	0.615	$17k	+$606
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	0.9939	0.9945	$16k	+$7.93
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	0.8524	0.855	$14k	+$41.3
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.8099	0.795	$13k	−$241
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	0.2129	0.115	$9.3k	−$7.9k
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	0.829	0.855	$8.8k	+$268
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	0.9883	0.994	$7.9k	+$45.3
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	0.972	0.9815	$7.1k	+$68.5
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	0.9656	0.9725	$7.0k	+$49.8
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	0.6507	0.645	$6.9k	−$61.6
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	0.8099	0.805	$6.7k	−$41.5
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	0.9555	0.9595	$6.0k	+$24.8
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	0.6357	0.645	$5.6k	+$79.3
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	0.7692	0.775	$5.2k	+$38.4
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	0.1651	0.145	$5.1k	−$707
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	0.9772	0.9855	$5.1k	+$42.3
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	0.957	0.9885	$4.9k	+$158
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	0.3988	0.435	$4.8k	+$396
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	0.4091	0.465	$4.7k	+$558
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	0.9098	0.9765	$2.6k	+$180
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	0.9362	0.945	$2.6k	+$24.0
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	No	0.945	0.9535	$2.4k	+$21.3
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	0.7441	0.745	$2.3k	+$2.46
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	0.959	0.9615	$1.9k	+$5.00
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	0.05	0.055	$1.1k	+$96.0
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	0.896	0.8975	$1.0k	+$1.75
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	0.1848	0.185	$867	+$0.76
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	0.969	0.973	$741	+$3.04
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	0.981	0.9865	$591	+$3.29
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	0.968	0.9935	$580	+$14.9
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	0.1639	0.1655	$575	+$5.21
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	0.3459	0.355	$562	+$14.3
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	0.901	0.9055	$537	+$2.62
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	0.1111	0.1345	$525	+$91.1
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	0.0149	0.011	$517	−$187
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	0.5809	0.463	$491	−$125
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	0.1521	0.162	$476	+$29.1
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	0.76	0.9705	$466	+$101
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	0.1299	0.062	$440	−$483
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	0.2399	0.295	$387	+$72.1
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	0.0258	0.0245	$337	−$18.6
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	0.1399	0.145	$324	+$11.2
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	0.17	0.2	$307	+$46.0
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	0.992	0.994	$274	+$0.55
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.1778	0.195	$271	+$23.9
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	0.1501	0.165	$258	+$23.3
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	0.2	0.0035	$258	−$14k

Recent activity

When	Market	Action	Size	Price	Profit
7 h ago	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Closed No	1650.9	0.9234	−$424
7 h ago	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Closed No	254501	0.19	+$116k
13 h ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	Closed Yes	500	0.92	+$29.5
14 h ago	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Closed Yes	109.321	0.66	+$1.09
14 h ago	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Closed No	125499	0.82	−$2.5k
15 h ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Closed Yes	118613	0.7926	−$5.1k
21 h ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Closed No	54768.4	0.028	+$16k
21 h ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Closed Yes	132475	0.9983	−$15k
21 h ago	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Closed No	1552.45	0.943	−$701
21 h ago	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Closed Yes	49323.8	0.0384	+$5.9k
21 h ago	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Closed No	32658.5	0.935	−$3.8k
22 h ago	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Closed No	16115	0.2625	+$534
23 h ago	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Closed Yes	267.52	0.003	+$1.61
1 d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Closed No	80555	0.998	−$16k
1 d ago	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Closed Yes	107229	0.2	−$19k
1 d ago	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Closed No	41190	0.118	+$19k
1 d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Closed No	15303.7	0.027	+$3.3k
1 d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	Closed Yes	700	0.9668	+$17.6
1 d ago	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Closed Yes	58296.4	0.9299	−$5.4k
2 d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?	Closed Yes	1185.86	0.9463	+$62.4
2 d ago	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?	Closed No	2340	0.0292	+$2.59
2 d ago	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Closed No	147261	0.1468	+$108k
2 d ago	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Closed No	5933.95	0.52	+$125
2 d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Closed No	8665.78	0.25	+$2.2k
2 d ago	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Closed No	11113.1	0.15	+$883

Profiled 6 h ago from public Polymarket data. Statistics, not advice.